Banking Giant JP Morgan Predicts Scottish Independence by 2019
June 29, 2016
Analysts from the American banking giant JP Morgan have indicated that they expect to see Scotland become an independent country by 2019.
The bank’s experts have also said that they are anticipating the creation of a new Scottish currency within the same timeframe.
With Britain seemingly set to leave the European Union after the result of the recent UK-wide referendum, financial sector analysts are keen to understand as much as they can about what the eventual ramifications of a so-called Brexit might be.
Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon has made clear her desire for Britain to remain part of the EU and has suggested that a second referendum on Scotland’s position within the UK could soon be undertaken.
While a slender majority of Brits voted to leave the EU in the recent national referendum, a sizable majority of Scots voted to remain within it and there has since been widespread speculation the Scotland’s political leadership will seek to retain its membership of the EU even if the rest of the UK is to leave.
“Our base case is that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point (2019),” Malcolm Barr, an economist from JP Morgan told his clients on June 29th.
Barr noted in his communication on the likely consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the EU that there are a wide range of potential outcomes in play and that relevant projections could not currently be made with any real certainty.
“In our minds, however, it is useful to lay out a base case as to how we think things will play out from here,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, outgoing British prime minister David Cameron has suggested that staging a second referendum on the subject of Scottish independence would be unwise.
“There was a legal, fair and decisive referendum two years ago,” a spokesperson for the prime minister said. “The reasons for Scotland being in the UK are as strong now as they were 18 months ago.”
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